It’s Official… You’re Working Through a Tougher Situation than the Depression
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Interesting article worth the read to understand what is about to happen.
Porter Stansberry: The next stage of the crisis is starting now
Monday, June 20, 2011
We’re about to see a return to crisis-like conditions in the world’s credit markets. This will devastate financial stocks. It should also hit commodity prices and commodity-related stocks hard. In today’s Digest, I’ll show you why I believe this will happen.
As longtime readers know, I write Friday’s Digest personally. In general, I try my best to teach our subscribers something useful. I’ve always run my research company with a few simple principles in mind. Among them, I strive to provide you with the information I would expect if our roles were reversed. You should know… abiding by this principle often requires me to share information with you before I can be 100% certain it’s correct.
That’s the case with today’s Digest. I want to show you the warning signs as I see them, right now. I want to guide you through my thinking process. And while I’ll give you my predictions about what these things mean, I hope you’ll realize that, as Yogi Berra famously said, predictions are tough – especially about the future.
The next stage in the ongoing global financial crisis will feature the collapse of both the Spanish and the Italian economies. This should occur within the next six months. Concurrently, I believe the “Chinese miracle” will be unmasked as mostly a fraud powered by a huge increase in bad lending from state-controlled banks.
Ironically, the coming wave of financial trouble will probably force people back into U.S. dollars. Gold will also do well. In the currency markets, I believe the euro will collapse in the second half of this year, as will the Australian dollar, which serves as a proxy for the Chinese economy.
I expect this next “down leg” in the world’s markets to be more severe than the crisis of 2008, because the balance sheets of the Western democracies are now less prepared to manage the losses.
Finally, I believe the euro will simply cease to exist.
The first thing I want to show you is the share price of UniCredit. You have probably never heard of UniCredit, but it is a major European bank, with significant operations in eastern and southern Europe. UniCredit is based in Italy. I’ve been keeping my eye on UniCredit for years, for reasons I’ll explain below. UniCredit is the ultimate “canary in the coal mine” of the world’s global currency system.
Most people don’t know that UniCredit is the direct descendent of Oesterreichische Credit-Anstalt, the largest bank in Eastern Europe before World War II. Translated the name means: Imperial Royal Privileged Austrian Credit-Institute for Commerce and Industry. It was a Rothschild bank. The family founded it 1855, and it became one of the most important banks in Europe.
Credit-Anstalt held assets and took deposits from all over Europe. In 1931, the bank failed as a direct result of the U.S.’s Smoot-Hawley tariff. The act crippled Germany’s economy and led French investors to redeem all the capital they’d lent to the bank. The failure of Credit-Anstalt caused Austria to abandon the gold standard, which set off a series of economic dominoes. Germany left gold… then Great Britain… and finally, in 1933, so did America.
The failure of Credit-Anstalt is what really kicked off the Great Depression. I have long been convinced the failure of its successor bank – now called UniCredit – would presage the next global monetary collapse.
I first began warning investors about UniCredit’s likely collapse and its historic role in the world’s monetary history back in March 2010. Since then, the bank’s shares have grown weaker and weaker. And since March, the shares have fallen off a cliff, hitting lows not seen since March 2009.
The sudden weakness in UniCredit’s shares (down 21% in the last several weeks) indicates to me that big trouble is brewing in Europe. I don’t believe efforts to stop the crisis in Greece will work. The austerity measures undertaken in Ireland, Spain, Italy, and Greece have severely weakened these economies, causing loan losses to banks like UniCredit.
And if there’s a run on UniCredit (and I believe there will be), the losses will be too large for Italy to manage without a huge international bailout. UniCredit has borrowed $300 billion from other European banks. And Italy’s government already owes creditors more than 120% of GDP. There aren’t any easy solutions to this problem.
Another warning comes from a friend who is a senior executive at a major Wall Street bank. He sees more high-yield bond deals than just about anyone else in the world. He told our Atlas 400 group last weekend that credit markets around the world were suddenly shutting down. Yields were moving up. Spreads (the cost to borrow above the sovereign rate) were getting wider for the first time since March 2009.
Why? Because the market knows that the U.S. Federal Reserve is going to stop buying $85 billion-plus per month of U.S. Treasury debt. But the Treasury is going to continue to issue more debt. In total, 61% of the entire federal debt will mature within four years. That means roughly $10 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds will have to be sold, plus whatever the total deficit adds up to over the next four years – maybe another $6 trillion.
It’s difficult to imagine this amount of Treasury issuance won’t have a big impact on the world’s credit markets because these bonds always sell first and at the lowest yields. As these yields “back up” because of the large issuance, they should drain liquidity away from other issues, causing other bond prices to fall. This will reduce liquidity and make issuing debt more expensive across the credit spectrum.
China’s boom since 2009 was fueled by massive domestic debt issuance, which was unsustainable and is reversing. In addition, one Chinese company after another is being revealed as a fraud – and then crashing. These are not isolated events. I have studied Chinese companies for more than a decade. Out of all the stocks I’ve analyzed closely, I’ve only seen a handful I didn’t believe were fraudulent.
So far, none of the major Chinese banks have come under serious scrutiny. But I believe they will… and I believe major fraud will be discovered. Take the recent weakness in the shares of China Life Insurance (LFC), for example. This isn’t a minor company. It’s a $90 billion life insurance company. As fraud allegations spread into major Chinese financials, the entire underpinning of the Chinese boom will fall apart. It has all been fueled by debt and fixed-asset investments (land, buildings, equipment, and machinery). Consider just a few of these facts…
Fixed-asset investment remains greater than 50% of GDP in China, for the 12th year in a row. No other country has ever had more than nine years of this kind of sustained fixed-asset investment.
In the first five months of 2011, fixed-asset investment grew by 25.8% according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. That’s $1.39 trillion worth of investment.
Jim Chanos, the famed short seller, says China is currently building 30 billion square feet of commercial real estate. That is enough to provide every person in China with a five-square-foot cubicle.
Jeremy Grantham, one of the world’s most astute investors, points out that China has been purchasing gigantic quantities of raw materials. The scale of these purchases makes them impossible to sustain. China makes up 9.4% of the world’s economy, but it is currently consuming 53% of the world’s cement, 47% of the world’s iron ore, and 46.9% of its coal.
A massive increase in China’s domestic debt fueled this investment. In 2010, for example, Chinese banks extended $55 billion in loans – up 95% from the year before. Now, banking regulators are increasing reserve requirements, greatly reducing the amount of available credit. In May, lending was down 25% versus last year.
With Europe’s crisis heating back up, with credit tightening in the U.S. (thanks to the end of quantitative easing), and with China’s boom unraveling… it’s time to be extremely cautious. I don’t know when it will start… but we’re entering another period of soaring volatility, increasing interest rate spreads, and falling stock and bond prices. How the authorities deal with these problems will set the stage for what happens next. If they try to paper over these continuing crises again – with new money-printing programs from the Federal Reserve – you can expect a massive inflation and what I call The End of America.
Our best hope for more stability and a return to prosperity is for people to realize that bailing out banks doesn’t solve these problems. It only makes them worse. But… I’m not optimistic.
“Other than that Mrs.Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?”
Where do I find your archived presentations? Specifically the one on BofA foreclosing on home that was paid for? I think that may get some more subscribers to you.
Here is the Result the banks have caused. http://www.youtube.comwatch?v=SgRj3pGYzAc&NR=1
This is the B of A news where their trying to pull their crap foreclosing on anything they can get away with.
http://www.news-press.com/videonetwork/974862659001/Bank-of-America-Finally-Settles-Suit-
Enjoy!!!!
Dare to be Bold !!
Everyone needs to see the HBO movie that came out this month, “Too Big to Fail”. It’s a must for everyone in our industry let alone every American.
Carlos, that’s yesterdays news.. watch todays news!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XySGw-g2tyk&feature=youtu.be
its a happening now….
Guys: gotta tell you. Todays show was the best one I’ve seen. all of the inserts were too cool. You are getting better every day.
Too bad many of you missed the luncheon with Bob Clark in Simi Valley CA last friday. He is a great guy to talk to and will even tell you what he thinks when it is not PC.
He did mention that ALL appraisers need to be a member of a statewide group to get anything done with legislators. We at CCAP have been pushing this for nearly 2 years now, and you really need to get off the fence and join. There is 13,400 appraisers in CA right now. There was 20K + just 4 years ago.
If you would join us in fighting for YOU, we could probably even stop RE Agents from stealing our valuation work, what little there is right now.
If you don’t join us it is only a matter of time til we are all out of a job! After I saw all the things coming down the pike that will be used to eliminate US, I can tell you with complete certainty that the first line of this paragraph is NOT BS!
Remember “Change is Enevitable”
Well the “change” is a comin’ , and WE will not be included, unless we unite and beat them with new laws.
They won’t need us anymore, and that is a fact!
http://www.CaCAP.org.
Randy
Be careful who you tell to lock in , doitright said it before and will say it again , the 10 year is going to 2.49 or below and rates still have another 1/4 to 1/2 downward movement in this crap economy . Imagine an FHA on a repo for a special rate of 1.50 % on a 40 year term . That will slove all the problems out there . There is the solution , FHA pulled us out before in the 30′s and it can do it again if the politicians used their brains instead of twittering women .
I choose to not participate in recessions. We should all learn to spell recession this way – O P P O R T U N I T Y. To do well, and help others who are not doing as well.
Check out the Keynes VS Hayek debate on my site http://www.evanvanderwey.com last fridays post.
Whatever Evan last time I heard someone say that be careful what you wish for and preach . That mortage banker is now secretly being shopped by his bosses to be replaced behind his back . They are interviewing people to replace him , he said many times when a loan officer would say it blows out there the same ridiculus statement in this economy . What recession ? Come on there get real , I guess you think values are going up also ? You stillhave time to make a retraction from that BS statement
Depression where? I’ve been swamped with appraisals for the past two months and more than half are purchases. Granted, it is mostly with retail banks but you brokers better stop whining and get in the game. As for inaccurate MLS numbers, document and report it. Any RE agent that reports false numbers at the pleasure of a bank needs to get stung. The local board here in Massachsetts would be all over it by lunchtime. I’ll be watching.
“doitright”..I watched the movie “One Flew Over the Cuckoos Nest” this weekend, I was sure I seen you in it!
You must be nuts what a crappy weekend you had except for one thing , you had been thinking and dreaming of doitright , keep it up welcome to my huge fan club my boy .
Hi PH, Ever go to an auction that the bank is putting on? Talk about rigged, with their buyers.
I believe that is your answer regarding the MLS .. So complain all you want but good luck according to all this legalized criminal activity its coming from the top and completely acceptable.. Yep just like everything else its a money grab take over from the top, We are living the wild wild west were (EVERYTHING) is being rigged in favor of the powers that be,
( banks get the securities back on the assets they don’t own or illegally foreclosed on etc. of course they want it to show a higher sale once they get it back in their possession its now worth more , why wouldn’t the poor poor bank want it to show a sales price higher so they can turn around and profit even more by supplying a buyer a loan with interest, So lets get it straight its a higher strand of powers doing this, not the poor real estate agents whom a lot don’t have a clue of what I’m speaking of because they cant ever figure it out yet!!!! Their is so much more involved here that goes very deep.. Your complaints will only give the powers that be, more power for a take over and declare more reason for a revamp/grab of controlling the mls and real estate in general.. EVER HERE OF DEVILS ADVOCATE (for the purpose of control ) I’m all for complaints but seems to me it only ends up helping the wrong people with today’s complaint system in place & the verdict Sayers or should i say players. Just remember they are one of the same. Hey Doitright, everything you say is correct but it s to bad the constitution is not being followed in respect to so much today.
Jen Quinn / Realtor Dare to be Bold!!!
I might be wrong on this, but weren’t the values of homes much more inflated in the recent years as opposed to the great depression? Also, without adjusted inflation numbers to give an idea on what the difference in purchasing power is with those dollars, aren’t those number kinda hollow?
Without so much as a link to the study that references these figures its almost impossible for us to even verify or educate ourselves about these numbers. I appreciate the knowledge, but unless on the information was gleaned from that one book, which isn’t stated, how does this really help me?
My, oh my! Intelligent responses. This very refreshing to hear.
Are you aware that 68% of data quoted to support 98% of political statements is generated on the spot? Let that one sink in.
Bill ha, I do believe that 68% is working its way up to 80% by months end.
Is that anything like that cologne on Anchorman?
Sex Panther: 60% of the time, it works every time.
It does work
Come on. When the numbers are expressed as percentages, they are adjusted for inflation.
Point taken Randel. But, where were those figures coming from, and how are we suppose to verify the accuracy?
Frank and Brian,
I am interested in your “drip” progrfam, but I have a concern. I am sure it is run by Carl White. I want to have some assurance that if I choose to do the program and later drop it that Carl will not try to use (in any way) my data base. He will not try to contact my data base or to convince the participants to go with another broker. He has done this to a friend on mine and this isn’t ethical, in my opinion.
Thanks
Mr. Garay,
Sorry guys, What is with the black finger nail Polish?
Frank and Brian
Why do you keep making your headlines Idiot bait for our resident Idiot doitright?
This blog is getting to be like a traffic wreck, and I should find a more productive way to spend 5 -10 min in my morning.
Go Howard Stern!
I agree freedom of press and speach ! Go Howard is right . Doering8 can not take the facts and truth ! He should be watching the Disney Channel . Facts are facts , we can all learn from the posts and comments from others not just from doitrights !
BTW…how many countries does the USA have to attack before the world realizes WWWIII has begun?
Again, please read Agenda 21
http://agenda21today.com/Influence_on_America.html
Y’all…it isn’t going to get better. The Depression of the 20′s was just a practice run. The Fed is a monstrous beast that has been consuming everyone in its path, which spans the four corners of the earth. Abe Lincoln and JFK went up against the bankers/Rothschilds and you know how they ended up. Here’s a link to a short/30 min cartoon movie that well explains The Fed and the origin of the IRS…BOTH illegal, unconstitutional entities!
The American Dream Film-Full Length
YouTube.com
http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?desktop_uri=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DtGk5ioEXlIM%26feature%3Dyoutu.be&feature=youtu.be&v=tGk5ioEXlIM&gl=US
Great recommendation!
Some more doitright history lessons to the facts not the hear say , the war did not end the depression :
World War II
The end of the Great Depression is often marked as December 1941, the same time that America became officially involved in World War II. Did World War II really end the Great Depression, though? It’s useful to note that the economy had been in expansion since June of 1938, two and a half years before U.S. entry into the second World War and that the economy stopped expanding in February 1945, prior to the end of the war. In “Wartime Prosperity? A Reassessment of the U.S. Economy in the 1940s”, Robert Higgs argues:
Relying on standard measures of macroeconomic performance, historians and economists believe that “war prosperity” prevailed in the United States during World War II. This belief is ill-founded, because it does not recognize that the United States had a command economy during the war. From 1942 to 1946 some macroeconomic performance measures are statistically inaccurate; others are conceptually inappropriate. A better grounded interpretation is that during the war the economy was a huge arsenal in which the well-being of consumers deteriorated. After the war genuine prosperity returned for the first time since 1929.
It’s easy to see that a war is simply a special case of deficit spending. Whatever the case is for deficit spending as a cure, war spending is clearly much weaker because the spending is not for productive purposes, but for destructive ones, no matter how justified the war might be.
Doing Nothing
Amazingly, doing nothing often seems to be the correct response. The Depressions of 1907 and 1920 were both over within a year, even though the Federal government did virtually nothing in response.
Het Frank, whats up with those black finger nails? Are you going gothic or something?
I’m no financial expert and the government bail out (should have been more or should have not happened) continues to be debated. But it is interesting to point out that WWll, the largest government spending program in our history (until our current wars) was the thing that ended the depression.
It was not what ended the depression if you riead the facts , housing ended the depression , in this mess we are in housing started it . We are in sad sad sad shape here in the USA . The people running the show are doing just that , putting on a show . It is all say too much and do too little . WE need doitright for President ! But the war did not get us out of the depression that just hear say , do some real fact finding and you will find part of the solution to todays mess .
Liberals are WRONG. It’s the PRIVATE SECTOR that is suffocated. It’s PRIVATE BIZ that is the ANSWER, NOT GOV”T! GOV’T is ALWAYS the PROBLEM. Look, it is the Gov’t that has allowed an IMPOSTOR with a forged history to be acting as pres.
3% is probably a little generous to open a door…… the Government will fix that problem pretty quick.
Ok, so completely off the subject, I am wondering if anyone has heard about this bill that is still on the table to reduce our maximum allowable commission to 3% on any closing. Does anyone think this is actually going to go through? I live in an area where the median sales price is $60k and this would kill us. When are they going to stop trying to cut the amount of money we make when we literally have to fight tooth and nail to get each deal closed!!!!
Rebecca, If you are an American and you make money, the government is coming for everything you have. The L/O Comp theft was just a prelude to all professions that the government is coming after. Great Depression invention – SPAM
now we will all be soon eating it for dinner after the Government finishes with us.
Rebecca -
Maybe you should stop working for a commission.
Maybe you shouls stop allowing the seller’s agent to determine how much your Real Estate services are worth.
Maybe you should set your own fee schedule like the seller’s agents do.
In the Phoenix area there is a group of Exclusive Buyer’s Agents at http://CheapPhoenixHomes.com that has a minimum fee charged to the buyers. If/When the commission offered by the seller’s agent doesn’t cover the minimum fee, then the buyer pays the difference at closing with their down payment and closing costs. Doing this eliminates a lot of conflict of interest between buyer’s agents and buyers and permits buyer’s agents to determine the value of their services and earn a reasonable compensation.
This system works because they have a waiting list of buyer clients ….. YES a waiting list of buyers waiting for them. They only accept a limited number of clients at any one time in order to provide the best quality real estate service possible to homebuyers.
Maybe you should contact them because they would be willing to share with you how and why their business model is successfull.
Rebecca, sorry to hear that the banks may be attempting to limit your commission to what THEY consider to be acceptable(what a set of nads these guys have!)…… You and NAR need to fight this with everything you have got…….BUT if you read previous threads(before today) you may be/will be surprised to read that from day 1 the appraisers were commenting on the fact that, even though we were the first to get targeted and hit hard, others will follow. Its taken some time to get to the Realtors, but believe me when I say this……NAR although powerful, has very little power compared to the Banking industry, you as a Realtor are a tool to get them more income/interest in the form of mortgages and you are considered by them to be earning too much in the transaction……money which they feel they are entitled to and should be steered towards the bank away from the borrower or seller….and again believe me when I say this…..they will get their pound of flesh. Hopefully NAR may be able to fend them off for some time, but its probably, sadly, inevitable that Banks will stick their noses into your business as they have done so with Appraisers, Brokers, LOs and now Realtors, in order to increase their profits on a property transaction.Independent appraisers are pretty much a thing of the past, Brokers are mostly gone, LOs are in the same boat and Realtors will probably be following all of us……FIGHT THIS WITH AS MUCH PASSION AS YOU CAN MUSTER…..NAR and our appraisal organizations didnt listen to ordinary appraisers when we suggested they help us in our fight against this behemoth….. now there are not enough of us left to help you fight the good fight….
They already did it to us lenders, and, as I told my realtor friends, they are coming after you next! Where were the realtors when they were talking about the “Loan Officers Compensation” law that they just implemented? Their goal was to get rid of Mortage brokers, next it’s Realtors!
PROSPECTING: A couple of months ago, I asked a friend to coach me, to hold me accountable for what I need to do – hey, we all know what to do, we just have to do it. “Coach” and I talk once a week for 15 minutes to go through my activity goals and results. I told him he’s not my friend if he holds back the truth about my efforts. It’s free and business is up.
DEPRESSION: If you go back to the pre-war statistics, unemployment and the stock market were improving before the “Deal” kicked in. After that, things worsened again. After the war, US manufacturing and US market share on the world stage exploded. Why? There weren’t any factories in Japan or Europe. The US dominated for 30 years while factories and related skills were brought back on line. Once we had competition, we regressed to the mean.
Actually FHA got us out of the first depression , Roosevelt started FHA for that reason , he made housing a real simple item to buy, This drepression it is going the other way , housing is being made much more difficult to buy . Look it up you will see what pulled us out . We have wars going on right now and in fact this depression started in late 2005 so the idea of war bucks taking us out of this mess is a long lost answer to our problems. But seriously do a history check on what pulled us out prior it was President Roosevelt starting FHA to get things going and it worked . I think it is basically over for the USA. Soon most foreclosures are going to be in such bad shape it will pull every neighbothood and development down more then the additional 30 to 35 % decrease on the way . It could look like slum city out there in a few years . Like I said get a real job and save .
History
During the Great Depression, the banking system failed, causing a drastic decrease in home loans and ownership. At this time, most home mortgages were short-term (three to five years), no amortization, balloon instruments at loan-to-value (LTV) ratios below fifty to sixty percent.[1] The banking crisis of the 1930s forced all lenders to retrieve due mortgages. Refinancing was not available, and many borrowers, now unemployed, were unable to make mortgage payments. Consequently, many homes were foreclosed, causing the housing market to plummet. Banks collected the loan collateral (foreclosed homes) but the low property values resulted in a relative lack of assets. Because there was little faith in the backing of the U.S. government, few loans were issued and few new homes were purchased.
In 1934 the federal banking system was restructured. The National Housing Act of 1934 was passed and the Federal Housing Administration was created. Its intent was to regulate the rate of interest and the terms of mortgages that it insured. These new lending practices increased the number of people who could afford a down payment on a house and monthly debt service payments on a mortgage, thereby also increasing the size of the market for single-family homes.[2]
The FHA calculated appraisal value based on eight criteria and directed its agents to lend more for higher appraised projects, up to a maximum cap. The two most important were “Relative Economic Stability,” which constituted 40% of appraisal value, and “Protection from adverse influences,” which made up another 20%.
During World War II, the FHA financed a number of worker’s housing projects including the Kensington Gardens Apartment Complex in Buffalo, New York.[3]
You guys are too funny. We all need to see the humor in this economy. There are no grownups at the helm……
Another GREAT way to prospect/market in this online world is through Inbound Marketing. Check out David Meerman Scott and Dharmesh Shah/Brian Halligan. These guys know their stuff. We’re doing it, and it’s working! Good luck, and let’s beat the hell out of this depression!
Lucy has some ‘splaining to do. “War got us out of the last depression.” How do you explain the fact that we got into this mess while we had TWO wars going on? Those wars are approaching 10 years now. Red Kool-Aid indeed. Feel free to clarify, if you can.
Stop Drinking the Red Cool-Aid guys!
I meant to respond to this post by Scott. Very nicely stated
Sales is a tough job, no doubt about it, especially today in real estate. You hear, read and talk about with others that in the real estate business, it is a numbers game. If you want more results, you have to do more activities, talk with more people, hold more open houses, make more calls, and basically, just do more to get more business. While this is true, it is only partially true.
You need to have quality contacts to truly have an impact on your bottom line. You need to provide value to those you speak with and earn the business or else your bottom line won’t change. You must engage others buy asking about them, their families, their business, etc. and take an interest in them before you talk about you – basic relationship building.
In addition, it is not just enough to say you are in real estate and business is unbelievable, you need to have an “elevator speech” about the services you provide, the information you share, and how you are different than others in the business. If you don’t, why would your business increase? Holding more open houses, knocking on doors, calling more FSBO’s or expired listings won’t get it done – you need to build relationships. You need to add value to those you speak with to earn their trust and in turn, you will get the opportunity to grow your business through referrals.
You need to know what is influencing our business and how that is impacting both buyers and sellers today. Yes, today because the real estate market changes virtually daily. How are property values and why is now a good time to buy and conversely, why it is a good time to sell. How do the low rates effect payments at loan amounts of $250,000, $300,000 or $500,000 and what is the difference if rates go up 1%? What are house values in your neighborhood, your town, and county for all categories of houses – condos, townhouses, and single family homes? How many properties are for sale? What are the month’s supply of houses and what does this mean? Is it a buyer’s or seller’s market? What price ranges are hot, who is buying in those price ranges and why? How is the rental market locally? How are their prices? What is their month’s supply? If you had the answers to these questions, do you believe you would be perceived as an expert by those you encountered and hence, obtain more business?
You have to know the real estate business, the numbers and the trends. Where is the market headed and why? Give your opinion and be able to back it up with facts. Watch videos, read blogs, read newsletters, network with others in our industry and absorb what they are saying and develop your conversation strategy based upon what you have learned to earn more business.
As previously mentioned, you need to increase your activities but you also need to improve the quality of your conversations. You need to become an expert in the business. If you only increase your activities or only gain knowledge and don’t share it with others, you won’t have the same business building results if you do them in concert with each other. Get it? Got it? Good!
Now, go sell something!
Hummm lets see I am in a swiming pool fishing . That is right no matter what you do in real estate now to increase sales it will not happen , why again there is no need . How many times has doitright a master of martketing told all of you , need can not be created . Presently there is no need to buy a home. In the good old days when grandma could sell two houses a week and still make a cake people had an inner need , that is what made the sale . They thought I can buy this house , live there and make 20 to 100,000 in no time ! SO it was buying a good stock ( at least it seemed to be) and you got to have parties, sleep in it , but best of all you got more then what you paid for. Once that need was removed you see there is no real need for housing. You can get shelter from an apartment, living with realatives, roomates and you dont loose thousands when the value decreases. Also you are not stuck in the home with negative equity. So all of you can increase your marketing and prospecting but doitiright will promise you this , you are fishing in a swiming pool with no fish . We are about half way through the value drop so if the video is correct we should see another 30 plus percent drop in values . You would have to be out of your mind to allow a Realtor or loan officer to talk you into buying a home . My advise is similar do some prospecting , but only to network for a real job . Talk to all the customers that loved you and ask ” DO you know where I can get a real job that is not boring , too slow, I can earn a living , and finally work hard .” Let them know that are not really a loser it is just the field you are in is and it make you feel depressed, worthless, and are at the bottom the pile as far as rewarding careers. Tell them you have to keep up with regs, get tested , handle changes , have appraisal issues and want out . So todays video is on track just it is off track as to what you should be asking , try this on your next lead it will pay better ………………..” Hey do you anyone hiring , I need a real job “?
It’s “like shooting fish in a barrel”. That’s the quote.
Very nicely stated.
I am noticing a strange trend in “closed” sales on the MLS. Turns out they are not really sales to an end buyer, it turns out one bank is selling the house/condo to another bank at a deeply discounted price, but still recording a much higher sales price on the MLS (typically equal to or more than the list price). If a real estate appraiser or record keeping company only uses MLS data it would APPEAR property values are remaining stable/solid when there is obvious evidence that values are dropping and there is something SERIOUSLY wrong with the market. I’ve been appraising for over 6 years and I have NEVER seen this trend before. After I noticed this weird trend in MLS sales not matching tax records I started calling agents to confirm sales, sales prices, and who the buyer and seller were….strange thing is I cannot get a call back and cannot reach these agents after multiple calls. I cant really figure out what is going on…but it’s not good. Usually agents call back within a day or two to answer any questions I have. Not only do I not get return calls from these agents they wont even take my call in the first place.
A couple of things……after six years in the business and its only NOW you started calling agents to verify details?????….
secondly, If the Real Estate agents will not return your calls or refuse to take your calls or give you incorrect information…… CALL THE STATE LICENSING AUTHORITY…….or better still write a complaint to the State and complain to them about one of their licensees!!!!!!!believe me that irresponsibility and disinformation will soon stop!
If there is incorrect data in the MLS it makes it TOTALLY USELESS so call the MLS and complain……you are paying a fee to the MLS for correct data and you are not getting what you pay for, additionally you infer that you dont check the details for your report so you are placing YOUR LICENSE and name in jeopardy….If and when the proverbial hits the fan….guess who the bank will blame for reporting incorrect data which they are relying upon to make financial lending decisions? and guess who will be paying through their E&O insurance policy…..let me give you a hint…it wont be the Realtor(s),it wont be the bank or the borrower and it wont be the MLS or title company…..
It is actually refreshing to hear a professional speak/write.
Thanks Bill I will keep it up !